Архів


2016_4Q DEC 15.   Ukraine Macro outlook
  DEC 12.   Potential for further monetary easing to reappear in 2017
  DEC 05.   BoP likely to be positive in the long run despite trade deficit
  NOV 28.   Elevated steel prices help the economy to outperform in 2H 2016, with more headwinds next year
  NOV 22.   Lending revival has begun, although likely to remain slow
  NOV 14.   Inflation spike decreases probability of NBU hike in December
  NOV 08.   Doubling in minimal wage unlikely to threaten the economy
  OCT 31.   Weakness of the current account underscores the economy's structural fragility
  OCT 25.   With key reading in green, the economy confidently enters 2H
  OCT 18.   Growing deposits signal of recovering financial system
  OCT 11.   Rising inflation increases probability of no key rate cut
  OCT 03.   Current account deficit to keep widening
2016_3Q SEP 19.   UAH is on track to gradually depreciate in spite of the IMF deal
  SEP 13.   CPI is likely to land at NBU target
  SEP 06.   Financial inflows are vital for UAH stability as current account deteriorates
  AUG 30.   Wage growth deceleration is likely to weight down domestic consumption in 2H 2016
  AUG 23.   July 2016 readings of retail sales showed a 4.5% y/y growth whereas industrial production grew by 7% m/m despite still being 0.2% lower than in July 2015
  AUG 16.   USD/UAH bounced off the bottom and entered a period of substantial volatility, underpinned by a pickup in import, FX outflow and delayed international financing
  AUG 09.   Inflation in Ukraine re-accelerated from 6.9% to 7.9% y/y, ending long term disinflation trend and limiting potential for further policy cuts this year
  AUG 02.   Despite robust June BoP figures uncertainty is elevated
  JUL 26.   Retail sales and industrial production data: a mixed bag
  JUL 19.   Ukrainian Eurobonds traded at par despite delay with IMF review
  JUL 11.   Inflation readings favor rate cut
2016_2Q JUL 04.   Solid BoP figures, weight shifting to capital account
  JUN 14.   Inflation likely to be in the low double digits going forward
  MAY 31.   The NBU cuts the key rate, more easing to come
  MAY 25.   Ukraine appreciation trend is likely to continue over next months
2016_1Q MAR 15.   Current account back in red
  MAR 01.   Industrial production almost flat
  FEB 23.   Boost in budget spending pushed up retail sales
 FEB 17.   End of recession?
  FEB 09.   2016 current account deficit likely to widen to USD 2.1bn (2.5% of GDP)
  FEB 02.   Weaker budget revenues to spur government borrowings later this year
  JAN 26.   Ukraine's IP: contraction slows, prospects stay bleak
  JAN 19.   This week in focus: UAH deposits show one-off surge in Dec
  JAN 12.   CPI inflation seen slowing to 14% by end-2016
2015_4QDEC 22.   Downward GDP revision is not bad news!
 DEC 14.   Macrofinancial stability is the main policy theme going forward
 DEC 07.   Current account again in red
 NOV 30.   Fiscal inflection point
 NOV 23.   Industrial production: drop slows but outlook still weak
 NOV 17.   Ukrainian economy shows early signs of a revival, but outlook is still foggy
 NOV 10.   Consumer price s: a technical adjustment
 NOV 03.   Current account: deficit to return in 4Q
 OCT 28.   Ukraine's industrial production: stagnation looms
 OCT 19.   External debt restructuring: debt sustainability issue delayed, but not resolved
 OCT 12.   End-year CPI forecast retained at 46.6%
 OCT 06.   Outlook on Ukraine's current account worsens
2015_3QSEP 28.   Uptick in the short-term data amid bleak outlook
 SEP 14.   UAH deposits head for recovery amid slowing inflation in Aug
 SEP 07.   FX controls extended
 AUG 31.   No growth drivers
 AUG 27.   Research Alert. Ukraine agrees to a sweet restructuring deal
 AUG 18.   Recent data provide no clear ground for a quick policy easing
 AUG 10.   This week in focus: Disinflation, please!
 AUG 04.   UAH looks weak despite healthy current account figures
 JUL 27.   Ukraine made important debt payment
 JUL 20.   2Q data confirms our view of a 13.6% GDP drop this year
 JUL 13.   Growing banking liquidity calls for lower NBU depo rates
 JUL 02.   Ukraine and Greece: default tales
2015_2QJUN 30.   Government's fiscal position seen strong despite weaker revenues
 JUN 15.   Local currency retail deposits resume their slide in May, access to UAH credit may get tighter
 JUN 08.   Inflation slows down in May – in line with expectations
 JUN 03.   4M budget performance: inflation drive loses steam
 MAY 19.   Ukraine's tax revenues soar 46.5% y/y against the backdrop of high inflation
 MAY 13.   Ukraine's inflation reaches 60% y/y and will moderate going forward
 APR 27.   Ukraine economy: searching for bottom
 APR 21.   UAH: strengthening is temporary
 APR 14.   Ukraine's FX-denominated domestic debt: assessment of risks
 APR 07.   Ukraine's CPI soars to 45.8% y/y, monetary discipline is key to the disinflation task
2015_1QMAR 30.   The curing effect of devaluation is still ahead
 MAR 23.   Ukraine GDP: no recovery in sight
 MAR 16.   Ukraine's reserves to nearly double this month, increase further in 2015
 MAR 12.   Research Alert. IMF approves USD 5bn for immediate disbursement
 MAR 02.   Better start after horrible week
 FEB 24.   Central bank struggles to stop excessive UAH devaluation
 FEB 17.   Growth to bottom out, retail sales are yet to hit the wall
 FEB 09.   Tighter all the way round
 FEB 02.   Retails sales: the worst is still ahead
 JAN 26.   Industrial production: L-shape recovery
 JAN 19.   Low reserves underline case for likely debt restructuring
 JAN 12.   "Temporary" budget adopted
2014_4Q   &P cuts Ukraine to 'CCC-' on increased default concerns
  DEC 09.   CPI climbs to 21.8% on the year
  DEC 02.   Current account to benefit from falling oil prices, but UAH still seen under pressure
  NOV 25.   Industrial production: rebalancing towards the EU
  NOV 18.   NBU hikes rates to support the UAH
  NOV 11.   USD/UAH breaks through 15 amid falling reserves
  NOV 04.   New FX rate regime
  OCT 21.   Industrial production: Donbass effect is fully played out
  OCT 13.   NBU reserves to fall sharply in 4Q, all eyes on IMF
  OCT 06.   Budget revenues helped out by high inflation, but pressure to mount
2014_3Q SEP 30.   Counting the costs of conflict 2
  SEP 22.   Counting the costs of conflict
  SEP 09.   Revised Ukraine-IMF memo
  SEP 02.   More trade rebalancing needed
  AUG 27.   UAH: a hostage of politics
  AUG 19.   Fightings in the East take toll on IP figures
  AUG 12.   Shrinking NBU reserves to discourage NBU from sizable monetary support of national currency
  AUG 04.   2Q GDP down by 4.7% y/y, our 2014-2015 growth forecast revised
  JUL 29.   Current account deficit ticks up in June
  JUL 14.   Ukraine issued VAT bonds, more to come 
2014_2Q JUN 23   Some thoughts on restructuring rumors
  JUN 17.   The third gas war: Stockholm arbitrage is to bring more transparency in RU-UA gas relations
  JUN 10.   Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks
  JUN 02.   Spring-cleaning of Ukraine's banking system gets underway
  MAY 23   New President likely to take office in early June, Parliamentary elections are to follow
  MAY 19.   Retail UAH deposits stabilized, NBU "prints money"
  MAY 13.   Still pain in Ukraine
  APR 29.   Big funding and long holidays
  APR 22.   Industrial production, retail sales to show further weakening
  APR 14.   Deposits keep flowing out of banks, more to come
  APR 08.   Reserves down to USD 15.1bn, weaker UAH starts to tell on CA
2014_1Q MAR 31.   Authorities resort to austerity steps on their bumpy path to IMF deal 
  MAR 24.   Industrial production: more headwinds to come
  MAR 17.   Retail deposits show limited decline so far, but risks remain
  MAR 03.   NBU imposes more administrative restrictions on FX market
  FEB 24.   Second chance for Ukraine
  FEB 10.   NBU reserves lowest since June 2006
  FEB 04.   GDP shows zero growth last year – window dressing!
  JAN 28.   Ukraine's PM asks for resignation, central bank steps in to defend UAH
  JAN 20.   State budget 2014: adopted to be later revised
  JAN 14.   2014 – a risk-free year?
2013_4Q    December, 16. UAH retail deposits show robust growth in November, expected to decelerate this month
     December, 9. FX interventions bring reserves to record low, rates to record high
     December, 6 Research Alert. NBU reserves drop to $18.8 bn in November
     December, 5 Research Alert. Orderly UAH depreciation: retail is the main risk trigger
     December, 2. 10M current account data provides no grounds for optimism
     December, 2 Research Alert. Political tensions in Ukraine: implications for capital markets
     November 25. With two days left before Vilnius, Ukraine is mired in uncertainty
     November, 22 BNP Paribas Global Outlook. Orchestrating growth
     November 18. We cut IP forecast to -4.5%, expect retail sales to decelerate further
     November 11 Research Alert. Fasten your seatbelt!
     November 11. Weak state of government finances makes MinFin seek new ways to cover its funding needs: 21- and 28-day bills are introduced
     November 04. Heading into recessionary 2013
     October 29 Research Alert. Ukraine's Government sets the amount of Treasury promissory notes issue for 2013
     October 21. Forecast of 3Q GDP growth down to -1.5% y/y, annual GDP growth seen at -0.4% y/y
     October 07. Current account shows record deficit since December, balance of payments in red
2013_3Q    September 30. Ukraine's CDS are too high, NDFs are too low
     September 09. NBU reserves drop by USD 1bn, expected to fall further
     September 02. Current account deficit widens as gas imports grow Budget revenues lag behind plan, making case for wider deficit
     August 27. Decline in industrial production slows down due to favorable comparison base, one-off factors
     August 12. Ukraine's central bank cuts refinancing rate by 0.5% (to 6.5%): whither implications?
     August 05. Better current account in 1H 2013 due to delayed energy purchases 
     July 29. One of two laws on Treasury promissory notes signed by President 
     July 8. Weak revenues growth makes authorities to exercise ingenuity: Parliaments allows VAT to be refunded via Treasury promissory notes
2013_2Q    June 25 Research Alert. impact on Ukraine's capital markets
     June 13 Global Outlook - Searching for growth, Q3 2013
     June 10. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks
     June 03. BoP to remain positive on more Eurobond placements, still eyes on Fed
     May 27. Muddle through feasible only in 2013
     May 20. Industrial production still in red
     April 29. Dance until the music plays
     April 23. New IMF loan on the back burner, for now
     April 15. UAH retail deposits keep rocketing, FX retail account down again
     April 8. Foreign reserves almost flat, deflation deepens in March
     April 2. Primary debt market in 2Q 2013: more UAH, less USD
2013_1Q    March 26. Favorable international markets support BoP
     March 18. UAH retail deposits show record growth in February
     March 11. BoP: some seasonal improvement, 12M trailing unchanged
     February 19. Outstanding growth in UAH retail deposits in January
     February 11. Fiscal tightening looming?
     February 4. Weak economic growth hints on further softening of the monetary policy
     January 28. Local debt market - Who is price taker?
     January 22. Ukraine's economic performance was rather weak in 2012, but still better than expected.
     January 21 Research Alert. UAH Interest Rates Outlook for January-May 2013: Rates to decline further.
2012_4Q    December 24. 2012 at a glance.
     December 18. New political priorities?
     December 10. Difficult Policy Choices.
     December 3. The IMF provides some suggestion of Ukraine's policy changes.
     November 26. December is coming – the outlook for the last month of the year.
     November 19. Currency market: In focus again.
     November 12. Currency market – New supportive measures instead of traditional interventions.
     November 5. Budget performance in 2012 – a hint to review a draft 2013 budget plan.
     October 29. Parliamentary election - close shave victory of the pro-presidential party.
     October 22. The NBU is ready to help Ukraine's economic growth.
     October 15. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system?
     October 8. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in budget revenue.
     October 15. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system?
     October 8. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in budget revenue.
     October 2. All eyes on the capital account.
2012_3Q    September 24. Weaker than expected economic performance may create a need for new external borrowings.
     September 18. An impact of the global stimuli on Ukraine.
     September 11. The UAH to remain stable in the nearest months.
     September 4. A drop in tax collection – the first signal of economic slowdown.
     August 28. Increases in retail deposits guarantee from UAH150thd to UAH200thd.
     August 21. Boost in the local demand continues putting pressure on the C/A.
     August 14. UAH retail deposits recorded an outflow, FX deposits added UAH 3.4 bn, net FX purchases by population increased by USD 50 mn m/m in July.
     August 07. NBU international reserves were at USD 30.8 bn in July, up only USD 0.76 bn m/m despite USD 2 bn in Eurobonds proceeds and zero FX debt repayments.
     July 31. Money market rates finally recovered from exorbitant levels of above 20% observed for the last two months.
     July 24. Ukraine tapped international debt markets for the first time this year selling USD 2 bn in 5Y bonds with 9.25% coupon.
     July 16. MinFin published its 3Q12 borrowing plan aiming to raise UAH 18 bn.
     July 11. NBU published loans and deposits statistics for June. NBU international reserves shed USD 1.44 bn in June.
     July 2. BoP recorded a surplus of USD 483 mn in May.
2012_2Q    June 25. NBU tightens monetary policy by changing reserves requirements.
     June 18. NBU currency market data for May was better than expected.
     June 11. Inflation hits multi-year low, down -0.5% y/y, on the back of falling food prices.
     June 5. VTB loan official repackaging plan finally announced: USD 1 bn to be repaid this week. MinFin raised unprecedented amounts of FX OVDPs to cover FX repayments in June.
     May 22. IMF visits Ukraine this week to discuss currency regime, no real action expected till elections. Banking total deposits fell insignificantly in April after hefty inflows in March.
     May 14. Markets troubled by Greece potential exit from the euro zone as country's political standoff continues. Fitch downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP forecast to 1.6%, below consensus.
     May 7. Provisional 1Q12 GDP up a meager 1.8% y/y, week growth expected after poor industrial output data.
     April 23. IMF downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP growth forecast. Ukrainian officials make feeble attempts to improve country's image on international debt markets.
     April 17. Euro zone in turmoil again over Spanish bond yields hitting year high last week.
     April 10. Ukrainian officials first admit IMF program frozen till elections.
2012_1Q    March 26. NBU cut base refi rate by 0.25% to 7.50%, introduced some rebalancing concerning mandatory reserves.
     March 12. Ukraine's president announced social spending ahead of the elections in Oct 2012.
     March 5. Global markets are enthusiastic following liquidity injection.
     February 27. Banking system liquidity is on recovery track.
     February 13. Sovereign risks are decreasing: state debt to GDP ratio is down, imports are slowing.
     February 6. Total state budget deficit is 3.4% in 2011.
     January 30. No quick results from IMF talks last week.
     January 24. Ukraine got no "New Year" gift from Gazprom.
     January 17. Rada adopts an ambitious privatisation program.
2009    November 27, 2009. Macro Outlook. Growth Under Construction.
2008    December 23, 2008. Macro Outlook. Looking to Get Out.