2015 December archive
December 22. Downward GDP revision is not bad news!
December 14. Macrofinancial stability is the main policy theme going forward
December 07. Current account again in red
2015 November archive
November 30. Fiscal inflection point
November 23. Industrial production: drop slows but outlook still weak
November 17. Ukrainian economy shows early signs of a revival, but outlook is still foggy
November 10. Consumer price s: a technical adjustment
November 03. Current account: deficit to return in 4Q
2015 October archive
October 28. Ukraine's industrial production: stagnation looms
October 19. External debt restructuring: debt sustainability issue delayed, but not resolved
October 12. End-year CPI forecast retained at 46.6%
October 06. Outlook on Ukraine's current account worsens
2015 September archive
September 28. Uptick in the short-term data amid bleak outlook
September 14. UAH deposits head for recovery amid slowing inflation in Aug
September 07. FX controls extended
2015 August archive
August 31. No growth drivers
August 27. Research Alert. Ukraine agrees to a sweet restructuring deal
August 18. Recent data provide no clear ground for a quick policy easing
August 10. This week in focus: Disinflation, please!
August 04. UAH looks weak despite healthy current account figures
2015 July archive
July 27. Ukraine made important debt payment
July 20. 2Q data confirms our view of a 13.6% GDP drop this year
July 13. Growing banking liquidity calls for lower NBU depo rates
July 02. Ukraine and Greece: default tales
2015 June archive
June 30. Government's fiscal position seen strong despite weaker revenues
June 15. Local currency retail deposits resume their slide in May, access to UAH credit may get tighter
June 08. Inflation slows down in May – in line with expectations
June 03. 4M budget performance: inflation drive loses steam
2015 May archive
May 25. Industrial production finds bottom, retail sales still in free fall
May 19. Ukraine's tax revenues soar 46.5% y/y against the backdrop of high inflation
May 13. Ukraine's inflation reaches 60% y/y and will moderate going forward
2015 April archive
April 27. Ukraine economy: searching for bottom
April 21. UAH: strengthening is temporary
April 14. Ukraine's FX-denominated domestic debt: assessment of risks
April 07. Ukraine's CPI soars to 45.8% y/y, monetary discipline is key to the disinflation task
2015 March archive
March 30. The curing effect of devaluation is still ahead
March 23. Ukraine GDP: no recovery in sight
March 16. Ukraine's reserves to nearly double this month, increase further in 2015
March 12. Research Alert. IMF approves USD 5bn for immediate disbursement
March 02. Better start after horrible week
2015 February archive
February 24. Central bank struggles to stop excessive UAH devaluation
February 17. Growth to bottom out, retail sales are yet to hit the wall
February 09. Tighter all the way round
February 02. Retails sales: the worst is still ahead
2015 January archive
January 26. Industrial production: L-shape recovery
January 19. Low reserves underline case for likely debt restructuring
January 12. "Temporary" budget adopted
2014 December archive
&P cuts Ukraine to 'CCC-' on increased default concerns
December, 09. CPI climbs to 21.8% on the year
December, 02. Current account to benefit from falling oil prices, but UAH still seen under pressure
2014 November archive
November, 25. Industrial production: rebalancing towards the EU
November, 18. NBU hikes rates to support the UAH
November, 11. USD/UAH breaks through 15 amid falling reserves
November, 4. New FX rate regime
2014 October archive
October 21. Industrial production: Donbass effect is fully played out
October 13. NBU reserves to fall sharply in 4Q, all eyes on IMF
October 6. Budget revenues helped out by high inflation, but pressure to mount
2014 September archive
September 30. Counting the costs of conflict 2
September 22. Counting the costs of conflict
September 9. Revised Ukraine-IMF memo
September 2. More trade rebalancing needed
2014 August archive
August 27. UAH: a hostage of politics
August 19. Fightings in the East take toll on IP figures
August 12. Shrinking NBU reserves to discourage NBU from sizable monetary support of national currency
August 4. 2Q GDP down by 4.7% y/y, our 2014-2015 growth forecast revised
2014 July archive
July 29. Current account deficit ticks up in June
July 14. Ukraine issued VAT bonds, more to come
2014 June archive
June 23. Some thoughts on restructuring rumors
June 17. The third gas war: Stockholm arbitrage is to bring more transparency in RU-UA gas relations
June 10. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks
June 02. Spring-cleaning of Ukraine's banking system gets underway
2014 May archive
May 26. New President likely to take office in early June, Parliamentary elections are to follow
May 19. Retail UAH deposits stabilized, NBU "prints money"
May 13. Still pain in Ukraine
2014 April archive
April 29. Big funding and long holidays
April 22. Industrial production, retail sales to show further weakening
April 14. Deposits keep flowing out of banks, more to come
April 08. Reserves down to USD 15.1bn, weaker UAH starts to tell on CA
2014 March archive
March 31. Authorities resort to austerity steps on their bumpy path to IMF deal
March 24. Industrial production: more headwinds to come
March 17. Retail deposits show limited decline so far, but risks remain
March 03. NBU imposes more administrative restrictions on FX market
2014 February archive
February 24. Second chance for Ukraine
February 10. NBU reserves lowest since June 2006
February 04. GDP shows zero growth last year – window dressing!
2014 January archive
January 28. Ukraine's PM asks for resignation, central bank steps in to defend UAH
January 20. State budget 2014: adopted to be later revised
January 14. 2014 – a risk-free year?
2013 December archive
December, 16. UAH retail deposits show robust growth in November, expected to decelerate this month
December, 9. FX interventions bring reserves to record low, rates to record high
December, 6 Research Alert. NBU reserves drop to $18.8 bn in November
December, 5 Research Alert. Orderly UAH depreciation: retail is the main risk trigger
December, 2. 10M current account data provides no grounds for optimism
December, 2 Research Alert. Political tensions in Ukraine: implications for capital markets
2013 November archive
November 25. With two days left before Vilnius, Ukraine is mired in uncertainty
November, 22 BNP Paribas Global Outlook. Orchestrating growth
November 18. We cut IP forecast to -4.5%, expect retail sales to decelerate further
November 11 Research Alert. Fasten your seatbelt!
November 11. Weak state of government finances makes MinFin seek new ways to cover its funding needs: 21- and 28-day bills are introduced
November 04. Heading into recessionary 2013
2013 October archive
October 29 Research Alert. Ukraine's Government sets the amount of Treasury promissory notes issue for 2013
October 21. Forecast of 3Q GDP growth down to -1.5% y/y, annual GDP growth seen at -0.4% y/y
October 07. Current account shows record deficit since December, balance of payments in red
2013 September archive
September 30. Ukraine's CDS are too high, NDFs are too low
September 09. NBU reserves drop by USD 1bn, expected to fall further
September 02. Current account deficit widens as gas imports grow Budget revenues lag behind plan, making case for wider deficit
2013 August archive
August 27. Decline in industrial production slows down due to favorable comparison base, one-off factors
August 12. Ukraine's central bank cuts refinancing rate by 0.5% (to 6.5%): whither implications?
August 05. Better current account in 1H 2013 due to delayed energy purchases
2013 July archive
July 29. One of two laws on Treasury promissory notes signed by President
July 8. Weak revenues growth makes authorities to exercise ingenuity: Parliaments allows VAT to be refunded via Treasury promissory notes
2013 June archive
June 25 Research Alert. impact on Ukraine's capital markets
June 13 Global Outlook - Searching for growth, Q3 2013
June 10. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks
June 03. BoP to remain positive on more Eurobond placements, still eyes on Fed
2013 May archive
May 27. Muddle through feasible only in 2013
May 20. Industrial production still in red
2013 April archive
April 29. Dance until the music plays
April 23. New IMF loan on the back burner, for now
April 15. UAH retail deposits keep rocketing, FX retail account down again
April 8. Foreign reserves almost flat, deflation deepens in March
April 2. Primary debt market in 2Q 2013: more UAH, less USD
2013 March archive
March 26. Favorable international markets support BoP
March 18. UAH retail deposits show record growth in February
March 11. BoP: some seasonal improvement, 12M trailing unchanged
2013 February archive
February 19. Outstanding growth in UAH retail deposits in January
February 11. Fiscal tightening looming?
February 4. Weak economic growth hints on further softening of the monetary policy
2013 January archive
January 28. Local debt market - Who is price taker?
January 22. Ukraine's economic performance was rather weak in 2012, but still better than expected.
January 21 Research Alert. UAH Interest Rates Outlook for January-May 2013: Rates to decline further.
2012 December archive
December 24. 2012 at a glance.
December 18. New political priorities?
December 10. Difficult Policy Choices.
December 3. The IMF provides some suggestion of Ukraine's policy changes.
2012 November archive
November 26. December is coming – the outlook for the last month of the year.
November 19. Currency market: In focus again.
November 12. Currency market – New supportive measures instead of traditional interventions.
November 5. Budget performance in 2012 – a hint to review a draft 2013 budget plan.
2012 October archive
October 29. Parliamentary election - close shave victory of the pro-presidential party.
October 22. The NBU is ready to help Ukraine's economic growth.
October 15. Money market—when will the UAH return to the banking system?
October 8. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in
October 2. All eyes on the capital account.
2012 September archive
September 24. Weaker than expected economic performance may create a need for new external borrowings.
September 18. An impact of the global stimuli on Ukraine.
September 11. The UAH to remain stable in the nearest months.
September 4. A drop in tax collection – the first signal of economic slowdown.
2012 August archive
August 28. Increases in retail deposits guarantee from UAH150thd to UAH200thd.
August 21. Boost in the local demand continues putting pressure on the C/A.
August 14. UAH retail deposits recorded an outflow, FX deposits added UAH 3.4 bn, net FX purchases by population increased by USD 50 mn m/m in July.
August 07. NBU international reserves were at USD 30.8 bn in July, up only USD 0.76 bn m/m despite USD 2 bn in Eurobonds proceeds and zero FX debt repayments.
2012 July archive
July 31. Money market rates finally recovered from exorbitant levels of above 20% observed for the last two months.
July 24. Ukraine tapped international debt markets for the first time this year selling USD 2 bn in 5Y bonds with 9.25% coupon.
July 16. MinFin published its 3Q12 borrowing plan aiming to raise UAH 18 bn.
July 11. NBU published loans and deposits statistics for June. NBU international reserves shed USD 1.44 bn in June.
July 2. BoP recorded a surplus of USD 483 mn in May.
2012 June archive
June 25. NBU tightens monetary policy by changing reserves requirements.
June 18. NBU currency market data for May was better than expected.
June 11. Inflation hits multi-year low, down -0.5% y/y, on the back of falling food prices.
June 5. VTB loan official repackaging plan finally announced: USD 1 bn to be repaid this week. MinFin raised unprecedented amounts of FX OVDPs to cover FX repayments in June.
2012 May archive
May 22. IMF visits Ukraine this week to discuss currency regime, no real action expected till elections. Banking total deposits fell insignificantly in April after hefty inflows in March.
May 14. Markets troubled by Greece potential exit from the euro zone as country's political standoff continues. Fitch downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP forecast to 1.6%, below consensus.
May 7. Provisional 1Q12 GDP up a meager 1.8% y/y, week growth expected after poor industrial output data.
2012 April archive
April 23. IMF downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP growth forecast. Ukrainian officials make feeble attempts to improve country's image on international debt markets.
April 17. Euro zone in turmoil again over Spanish bond yields hitting year high last week.
April 10. Ukrainian officials first admit IMF program frozen till elections.
2012 March archive
March 26. NBU cut base refi rate by 0.25% to 7.50%, introduced some rebalancing concerning mandatory reserves.
March 12. Ukraine's president announced social spending ahead of the elections in Oct 2012.
March 5. Global markets are enthusiastic following liquidity injection.
2012 February archive
February 27. Banking system liquidity is on recovery track.
February 13. Sovereign risks are decreasing: state debt to GDP ratio is down, imports are slowing.
February 6. Total state budget deficit is 3.4% in 2011.
2012 January archive
January 30. No quick results from IMF talks last week.
January 24. Ukraine got no "New Year" gift from Gazprom.
January 17. Rada adopts an ambitious privatisation program.
November 27, 2009
Macro Outlook. Growth Under Construction.
December 23, 2008
Macro Outlook. Looking to Get Out.