Archive research


2015

2015 December archive

December 22. Downward GDP revision is not bad news!

December 14. Macrofinancial stability is the main policy theme going forward

December 07. Current account again in red

 

2015 November archive

November 30. Fiscal inflection point

November 23. Industrial production: drop slows but outlook still weak

November 17. Ukrainian economy shows early signs of a revival, but outlook is still foggy

November 10. Consumer price s: a technical adjustment

November 03. Current account: deficit to return in 4Q

 

2015 October archive

October 28. Ukraine's industrial production: stagnation looms

October 19. External debt restructuring: debt sustainability issue delayed, but not resolved

October 12. End-year CPI forecast retained at 46.6%

October 06. Outlook on Ukraine's current account worsens

 

2015 September archive

September 28. Uptick in the short-term data amid bleak outlook

September 14. UAH deposits head for recovery amid slowing inflation in Aug

September 07. FX controls extended

 

2015 August archive

August 31. No growth drivers

August 27. Research Alert. Ukraine agrees to a sweet restructuring deal

August 18. Recent data provide no clear ground for a quick policy easing

August 10. This week in focus: Disinflation, please!

August 04. UAH looks weak despite healthy current account figures

 

2015 July archive

July 27. Ukraine made important debt payment

July 20. 2Q data confirms our view of a 13.6% GDP drop this year

July 13. Growing banking liquidity calls for lower NBU depo rates

July 02. Ukraine and Greece: default tales

 

2015 June archive

June 30. Government's fiscal position seen strong despite weaker revenues

June 15. Local currency retail deposits resume their slide in May, access to UAH credit may get tighter

June 08. Inflation slows down in May in line with expectations

June 03. 4M budget performance: inflation drive loses steam

 

2015 May archive

May 25. Industrial production finds bottom, retail sales still in free fall

May 19. Ukraine's tax revenues soar 46.5% y/y against the backdrop of high inflation

May 13. Ukraine's inflation reaches 60% y/y and will moderate going forward

 

2015 April archive

April 27. Ukraine economy: searching for bottom

April 21. UAH: strengthening is temporary

April 14. Ukraine's FX-denominated domestic debt: assessment of risks

April 07. Ukraine's CPI soars to 45.8% y/y, monetary discipline is key to the disinflation task

 

2015 March archive

March 30. The curing effect of devaluation is still ahead

March 23. Ukraine GDP: no recovery in sight

March 16. Ukraine's reserves to nearly double this month, increase further in 2015

March 12. Research Alert. IMF approves USD 5bn for immediate disbursement

March 02. Better start after horrible week

 

2015 February archive

February 24. Central bank struggles to stop excessive UAH devaluation

February 17. Growth to bottom out, retail sales are yet to hit the wall

February 09. Tighter all the way round

February 02. Retails sales: the worst is still ahead

 

2015 January archive

January 26. Industrial production: L-shape recovery

January 19. Low reserves underline case for likely debt restructuring

January 12. "Temporary" budget adopted

 

2014

2014 December archive

&P cuts Ukraine to 'CCC-' on increased default concerns

December, 09. CPI climbs to 21.8% on the year

December, 02. Current account to benefit from falling oil prices, but UAH still seen under pressure

 

2014 November archive

November, 25. Industrial production: rebalancing towards the EU

November, 18. NBU hikes rates to support the UAH

November, 11. USD/UAH breaks through 15 amid falling reserves

November, 4. New FX rate regime

 

2014 October archive

October 21. Industrial production: Donbass effect is fully played out

October 13. NBU reserves to fall sharply in 4Q, all eyes on IMF

October 6. Budget revenues helped out by high inflation, but pressure to mount

 

2014 September archive

September 30. Counting the costs of conflict 2

September 22. Counting the costs of conflict

September 9. Revised Ukraine-IMF memo

September 2. More trade rebalancing needed

 

2014 August archive

August 27. UAH: a hostage of politics

August 19. Fightings in the East take toll on IP figures

August 12. Shrinking NBU reserves to discourage NBU from sizable monetary support of national currency

August 4. 2Q GDP down by 4.7% y/y, our 2014-2015 growth forecast revised

 

2014 July archive

July 29. Current account deficit ticks up in June

July 14. Ukraine issued VAT bonds, more to come 

 

2014 June archive

June 23. Some thoughts on restructuring rumors

June 17. The third gas war: Stockholm arbitrage is to bring more transparency in RU-UA gas relations

June 10. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks

June 02. Spring-cleaning of Ukraine's banking system gets underway

 

2014 May archive

May 26. New President likely to take office in early June, Parliamentary elections are to follow

May 19. Retail UAH deposits stabilized, NBU "prints money"

May 13. Still pain in Ukraine

 

2014 April archive

April 29. Big funding and long holidays

April 22. Industrial production, retail sales to show further weakening 

April 14. Deposits keep flowing out of banks, more to come

April 08. Reserves down to USD 15.1bn, weaker UAH starts to tell on CA

 

2014 March archive

March 31. Authorities resort to austerity steps on their bumpy path to IMF deal 

March 24. Industrial production: more headwinds to come

March 17. Retail deposits show limited decline so far, but risks remain

March 03. NBU imposes more administrative restrictions on FX market

 

2014 February archive

February 24. Second chance for Ukraine

February 10. NBU reserves lowest since June 2006

February 04. GDP shows zero growth last year window dressing!

 

2014 January archive

January 28. Ukraine's PM asks for resignation, central bank steps in to defend UAH

January 20. State budget 2014: adopted to be later revised

January 14. 2014 a risk-free year?

2013

2013 December archive

December, 16. UAH retail deposits show robust growth in November, expected to decelerate this month

December, 9. FX interventions bring reserves to record low, rates to record high

December, 6 Research Alert. NBU reserves drop to $18.8 bn in November

December, 5 Research Alert. Orderly UAH depreciation: retail is the main risk trigger

December, 2. 10M current account data provides no grounds for optimism

December, 2 Research Alert. Political tensions in Ukraine: implications for capital markets

 

2013 November archive

November 25. With two days left before Vilnius, Ukraine is mired in uncertainty

November, 22 BNP Paribas Global Outlook. Orchestrating growth

November 18. We cut IP forecast to -4.5%, expect retail sales to decelerate further

November 11 Research Alert. Fasten your seatbelt!

November 11. Weak state of government finances makes MinFin seek new ways to cover its funding needs: 21- and 28-day bills are introduced

November 04. Heading into recessionary 2013

 

2013 October archive

October 29 Research Alert. Ukraine's Government sets the amount of Treasury promissory notes issue for 2013

October 21. Forecast of 3Q GDP growth down to -1.5% y/y, annual GDP growth seen at -0.4% y/y

October 07. Current account shows record deficit since December, balance of payments in red

 

2013 September archive

September 30. Ukraine's CDS are too high, NDFs are too low

September 09. NBU reserves drop by USD 1bn, expected to fall further

September 02. Current account deficit widens as gas imports grow Budget revenues lag behind plan, making case for wider deficit

 

2013 August archive

August 27. Decline in industrial production slows down due to favorable comparison base, one-off factors

August 12. Ukraine's central bank cuts refinancing rate by 0.5% (to 6.5%): whither implications?

August 05. Better current account in 1H 2013 due to delayed energy purchases 

 

2013 July archive

July 29. One of two laws on Treasury promissory notes signed by President 

July 8. Weak revenues growth makes authorities to exercise ingenuity: Parliaments allows VAT to be refunded via Treasury promissory notes

 

2013 June archive

June 25 Research Alert. impact on Ukraine's capital markets

June 13 Global Outlook - Searching for growth, Q3 2013

June 10. Ukraine's Eurobonds rally on reassessment of risks

June 03. BoP to remain positive on more Eurobond placements, still eyes on Fed

 

2013 May archive

May 27. Muddle through feasible only in 2013

May 20. Industrial production still in red

 

2013 April archive

April 29. Dance until the music plays

April 23. New IMF loan on the back burner, for now

April 15. UAH retail deposits keep rocketing, FX retail account down again

April 8. Foreign reserves almost flat, deflation deepens in March

April 2. Primary debt market in 2Q 2013: more UAH, less USD

 

2013 March archive

March 26. Favorable international markets support BoP

March 18. UAH retail deposits show record growth in February

March 11. BoP: some seasonal improvement, 12M trailing unchanged

 

2013 February archive

February 19. Outstanding growth in UAH retail deposits in January

February 11. Fiscal tightening looming?

February 4. Weak economic growth hints on further softening of the monetary policy

 

2013 January archive

January 28. Local debt market - Who is price taker?

January 22. Ukraine's economic performance was rather weak in 2012, but still better than expected.

January 21 Research Alert. UAH Interest Rates Outlook for January-May 2013: Rates to decline further.

2012

2012 December archive

December 24. 2012 at a glance.

December 18. New political priorities?

December 10. Difficult Policy Choices.

December 3. The IMF provides some suggestion of Ukraine's policy changes.

 

2012 November archive

November 26. December is coming the outlook for the last month of the year.

November 19. Currency market: In focus again.

November 12. Currency market New supportive measures instead of traditional interventions.

November 5. Budget performance in 2012 a hint to review a draft 2013 budget plan.

 

2012 October archive

October 29. Parliamentary election - close shave victory of the pro-presidential party.

October 22. The NBU is ready to help Ukraine's economic growth.

October 15. Money marketwhen will the UAH return to the banking system?

October 8. Finance Ministry finds some smart solutions to cover a decline in
budget revenue.

October 2. All eyes on the capital account.

 

2012 September archive

September 24. Weaker than expected economic performance may create a need for new external borrowings.

September 18. An impact of the global stimuli on Ukraine.

September 11. The UAH to remain stable in the nearest months.

September 4. A drop in tax collection the first signal of economic slowdown.

 

2012 August archive

August 28. Increases in retail deposits guarantee from UAH150thd to UAH200thd.

August 21. Boost in the local demand continues putting pressure on the C/A.

August 14. UAH retail deposits recorded an outflow, FX deposits added UAH 3.4 bn, net FX purchases by population increased by USD 50 mn m/m in July.

August 07. NBU international reserves were at USD 30.8 bn in July, up only USD 0.76 bn m/m despite USD 2 bn in Eurobonds proceeds and zero FX debt repayments.

 

2012 July archive

July 31. Money market rates finally recovered from exorbitant levels of above 20% observed for the last two months.

July 24. Ukraine tapped international debt markets for the first time this year selling USD 2 bn in 5Y bonds with 9.25% coupon.

July 16. MinFin published its 3Q12 borrowing plan aiming to raise UAH 18 bn.

July 11. NBU published loans and deposits statistics for June. NBU international reserves shed USD 1.44 bn in June.

July 2. BoP recorded a surplus of USD 483 mn in May.

 

2012 June archive

June 25. NBU tightens monetary policy by changing reserves requirements.

June 18. NBU currency market data for May was better than expected.

June 11. Inflation hits multi-year low, down -0.5% y/y, on the back of falling food prices.

June 5. VTB loan official repackaging plan finally announced: USD 1 bn to be repaid this week. MinFin raised unprecedented amounts of FX OVDPs to cover FX repayments in June.

 

2012 May archive

May 22. IMF visits Ukraine this week to discuss currency regime, no real action expected till elections. Banking total deposits fell insignificantly in April after hefty inflows in March.

May 14. Markets troubled by Greece potential exit from the euro zone as country's political standoff continues. Fitch downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP forecast to 1.6%, below consensus.

May 7. Provisional 1Q12 GDP up a meager 1.8% y/y, week growth expected after poor industrial output data.

 

2012 April archive

April 23. IMF downgrades Ukraine's 2012 GDP growth forecast. Ukrainian officials make feeble attempts to improve country's image on international debt markets.

April 17. Euro zone in turmoil again over Spanish bond yields hitting year high last week.

April 10. Ukrainian officials first admit IMF program frozen till elections.

 

2012 March archive

March 26. NBU cut base refi rate by 0.25% to 7.50%, introduced some rebalancing concerning mandatory reserves.

March 12. Ukraine's president announced social spending ahead of the elections in Oct 2012.

March 5. Global markets are enthusiastic following liquidity injection.

 

2012 February archive

February 27. Banking system liquidity is on recovery track.

February 13. Sovereign risks are decreasing: state debt to GDP ratio is down, imports are slowing.

February 6. Total state budget deficit is 3.4% in 2011.

 

2012 January archive

January 30. No quick results from IMF talks last week.

January 24. Ukraine got no "New Year" gift from Gazprom.

January 17. Rada adopts an ambitious privatisation program.

 

2009

November 27, 2009
Macro Outlook. Growth Under Construction.

 

2008

December 23, 2008

Macro Outlook. Looking to Get Out.